Looking Mostly Good So Far

At the time I write this it looks like the Iraqi elections are looking good so far. There has been some violence but not as overwhelming as I feared and people appear to be voting. Let's hope these keeps up throughout the day. It looks like the biggest problem won't be low voter turnout overall, but low Sunni turnout.

Personally, I would prefer regional elections for local representatives. I think that would have gone a long way of preventing any kind of 'discredited' election due to the Sunnis' refusal to participate. I also believe local representative elections could have been held over a year ago, even before the hand-over of sovereignty to oversee the occupationprovisional government.

To get a feel for how election day will go and where Iraqi public opinion stands, see Zogby's recent poll best summarized by Juan Cole:

Sunni Arabs who say they will vote on Sunday: 9%
Sunni Arabs who say they definitely will not vote on Sunday: 76%
Shiites who say they likely or definitely will vote: 80%
Kurds who say they likely or definitely will vote: 56%

Sunni Arabs who want the US out of Iraq now or very soon: 82%
Shiites who want the US out of Iraq now or very soon: 69%

Sunni Arabs who believe US will hurt Iraq over next 5 years: 62%
Shiites who believe US will hurt Iraq over next five years: 49%

Shiites who want to hold elections on Jan. 30: 84%
Kurds who want to hold elections on Jan. 30: 64%

Sunni Arabs who want to postpone elections: 62%

Sunni Arabs who consider guerrilla resistance against the Americans legitimate: 53%

Iraqis who would support a religious government: 33%

Again, this was a Zogby poll, so keep that in mind. Still, shift the numbers by 10% and it still paints roughly the same picture. Iraq's want us out, but they still need us, whether they want us or not. Somehow we need to pull out gracefully without letting the place collapse under its own weight. I wish I knew how to do that; I don't. I'm not sure anyone does.